Because there are so many variables in horse racing handicap, it is often difficult to assess a race and come to a conclusion about each horse’s actual odds of winning. When that happens, it’s often best to just skip the race and move on to the next to make a winning bet. One of the most puzzling situations occurs when a young horse is running at a new distance or on a new surface.
If the change is new and represents a situation that the horse has not experienced in the past, the logical step is to look into breeding it. Breeding a horse often tells us whether it tolerates the change well. But there are some considerations that need to be made. First, if the situation is new to the horse, how well will it adapt without experience. Some sires produce good grass racers, but which ones require multiple tries to get used to the new surface?
The same applies to the distance switch. If a horse runs a much shorter distance than before, how will it handle the early speed? Sprinters typically encounter much earlier speed and must learn to dash forward or within a few lengths of the leader to be within striking distance in most sprints, although there are some exceptions.
The role of the jockey cannot be overlooked. Some jockeys will be able to get a horse out of the gate fast enough to compete in a sprint, while others just don’t have the talent. The same goes for a horse going long for the first time. Some riders can soothe a horse so that the mid-race fractions are soft enough to allow for a bit of walking on the track.
If you have any chance of finding good bets on horses that experience a first situation, be it surface, distance or both, you need to determine which sires have precocious offspring that can handle the first situation and which jockeys do well enough with a horse communicate to get them to accept the new situation without burning too much energy.
It is not enough to say that a rider is good on grass or with young horses. Given the highly competitive nature and tight margins that the modern horseplayer operates with, you must fully understand the rider and the sire, and then be able to appreciate the horse’s true odds of winning.
Thanks to Bill Peterson | #Distance #switch #horse #racing #turf #dirt
