If you’re looking for a handicap method that rates runners and puts you on horses that will win over the long run, you need to determine what factors to use. The problem is that not all horse racing is created equal. We know that pace varies depending on the surface the race is on, but what combination of pace and speed or class do we use to lift a horse higher?
Start with the notion of hierarchy to determine the fair value a horse should return. In order to arrive at this value, one must know to what extent a horse outshines the other horses. It’s confusing at times because although one horse fits the pace scenario better than another, it can lack class.
As you make your comparisons, ask yourself, “Which is more important, class or speed or pace?” That’s the problem. The horse that is head and shoulders above the rest in all categories will post at ridiculously low odds and is not a big bet. It’s hard to get excited about a runner with odds of 1-5. We’re all looking for that horse that seems underrated by the crowd, but let’s face it, they do a pretty good job of horse pricing.
I’ve found that on the speed-promoting gravel roads of North America, speed and pace are almost synonymous. The horse that can establish himself and lead early will often dominate and fend off late threats. We’ve seen it many times, the horse that the public thinks is cheap speed in racing goes forward and never looks back. Another likely scenario is a cheap speedster that manages to land behind two more posh opponents and outrun them on the track once they’ve exhausted each other.
So before I rate a class horse, I want to know if it actually won over distance and track. It may be classy, but unless it’s built to win at distance, a fast horse with pace can win despite looking inferior on paper because it hasn’t raced against horses of the same caliber that the class horse was facing. Don’t make the mistake of overestimating a horse because it won a lot more money. That’s impressive, but you have to answer the question of where and when it won that money.
If the races it won were on a different surface, or if it’s a router and today’s race is a sprint, you might find a better value for a more mundane runner that fits the track model.
Thanks to Bill Peterson | #Horse #Racing #Handicapping #Methods #Pace #Speed #Class #Combination
